RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.350713
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.707895
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.20734
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.074735
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.010974
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.061791
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	0.661969
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	0.099108
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.003393
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	0.321845
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	-0.114903
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.042554
May 15, 2022 01:00PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022	0.349969
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	0.210173
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	-0.33143
Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022	0.185973
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	0.090606

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