Confirmed previous forecast
-0.343744
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 5%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6%
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 5%
0%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
0%
More than or equal to 6%
Electromobility technology is improving largely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 20%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(0%)
Not before 1Q 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 20%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Why do you think you're right?
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Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
