RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	0.677404
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.006504
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.037295
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	0.001632
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.006808
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.002273
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023)	0.000639
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.010688
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.033872
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	0.001113
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC	Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?	-0.00758
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	0.010523
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.073766
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	-0.000073
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.12073
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	-0.00031
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.323471
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.034781
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.023869
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.0145

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