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keller
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2020 Season
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
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INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
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Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
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semiconductors
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U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC
Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)
-0.000793
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?
-0.000857
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
0.007568
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC
What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?
-0.041024
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC
What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?
0.010703
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC
What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
-0.069412
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC
How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
-0.049208
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC
How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
0.013513
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC
What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
-0.032453
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?
-0.006395
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC
Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?
0.0348
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?
0.040036
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?
-0.011631
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?
-0.00084
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