114th
Accuracy Rank

lan

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Forecasted Questions

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2024 05:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 23%
No 60% 77%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 06, 2024 05:35AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 5%
No 80% 95%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:49AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 11%
No 40% 89%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2024 05:27AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 5% 2%
Qatar 2% 1%
Saudi Arabia 8% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 22, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%
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