Forecasted Questions
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2024 05:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 31, 2024 05:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 40% | 23% | +17% | -27% |
No | 60% | 77% | -17% | +27% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 06, 2024 05:35AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 06, 2024 05:35AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | 5% | +15% | -5% |
No | 80% | 95% | -15% | +5% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:49AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 12, 2024 03:49AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 60% | 11% | +49% | -42% |
No | 40% | 89% | -49% | +42% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 12, 2024 03:55AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | -2% |
No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +2% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 12, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -1% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2024 05:27AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 14, 2024 05:27AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -2% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +2% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 21, 2024 04:17AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
Qatar | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 8% | 2% | +6% | -2% |
Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 22, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 22, 2024 05:02AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |