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114th
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
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Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.000092
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
0.004351
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
0.005974
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
0.090824
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
-0.045372
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
-0.131031
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
-0.145675
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
0.059059
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
-0.016766
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?
0.359518
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
-0.016565
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
0.032801
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?
0.011047
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.047964
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
0.918103
Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC
Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?
-0.000079
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
0.027905
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?
-0.001869
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?
0.007432
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?
0.036459
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