Confirmed previous forecast
4.99674
Relative Brier Score
156
Forecasts
41
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 61 | 45 | 1081 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 43 | 29 | 238 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 57 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 21, 2024 04:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 21, 2024 to Dec 21, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Jun 21, 2024 to Dec 21, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
5%
(0%)
Oman
2%
(0%)
Qatar
8%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Looks like we are all agree on this answer. Iran has not been complying with the JCPOA nor cooperating with the IAEA since 2019. Iran’s recent attack on Israel further elevated tension in the area. The chance of Iran reducing its enriched uranium stockpile is nil.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Iran just lost its president and is busy with the process of replacement. In addition, the JCPO deal expires in October 2025. Most likely, Iran will play along with the nuclear talks until the JCPOA expires.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran’s recent drone and missile attack on Israel has heightened tension in the region. If the situation escalates further, Iran will likely move toward nuclearization to create a deterrent against future attacks from Israel. To prepare for this they will need to withdraw from JCPOA before 2025.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Am making a slight adjustment but maintaining the same answer.