0.191635
Relative Brier Score
45
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
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Definitions |
Active Forecaster
Looks like we are all agree on this answer. Iran has not been complying with the JCPOA nor cooperating with the IAEA since 2019. Iran’s recent attack on Israel further elevated tension in the area. The chance of Iran reducing its enriched uranium stockpile is nil.
Why do you think you're right?
Iran just lost its president and is busy with the process of replacement. In addition, the JCPO deal expires in October 2025. Most likely, Iran will play along with the nuclear talks until the JCPOA expires.
Why might you be wrong?
Iran’s recent drone and missile attack on Israel has heightened tension in the region. If the situation escalates further, Iran will likely move toward nuclearization to create a deterrent against future attacks from Israel. To prepare for this they will need to withdraw from JCPOA before 2025.
Am making a slight adjustment but maintaining the same answer.