RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.044129
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.001853
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.030869
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.051894
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.012251
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.015625
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.018188
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.004854
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.120562
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.000048

loganamcnichols