There seems to be no broad violent effort against the government/civilians right now.
0.152743
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-84%)
Less than or equal to 749
10%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
55%
(+54%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
30%
(+30%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The ELN and other groups may become more active again
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
Less than or equal to 749
10%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
1%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
0%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 3000
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Jun 28, 2023 12:32PM UTC
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Comment deleted on Jun 28, 2023 12:32PM UTC
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 28, 2023 12:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jun 28, 2023 to Dec 28, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
No signs for this at the moment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hard to get insights into the internal processes of China's regime
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Even if Putin's regime is weakened, there is no alternative for Putin's successor.
Why might you be wrong?
The Wagner coup showed how fragile Putin's regime is.