RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.133104
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.096717
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.004498
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.007934
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.073203
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.041799
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.991954
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.391274
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	0.143669
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	0.474836
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?	-0.019375
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?	0.054423
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?	0.0005

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Marc Richardson

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