164th
Accuracy Rank

margaretelam

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0.620201

Relative Brier Score

61

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 409
Comments 0 0 0 0 4
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 184
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 5
 Definitions
New Prediction

This doesn't look like anyone's desired course of action at the moment.. perhaps if tensions rise but for now I don't see any JCPOA countries trying to impose sanctions on Iran, as opposed to negotiating them out.

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New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Kuwait
4% (0%)
Oman
5% (0%)
Qatar
4% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
4% (0%)
Tunisia

confirming.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
I don't see Iran pushing their boundaries like this.
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Why might you be wrong?

This question has a very long timeline on it so conditions could change drastically.

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New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
16% (-10%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
59% (+21%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
17% (-10%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
5% (-1%)
More than or equal to 3000

Based on new data I'm weighing the middle bin more heavily.

Files
New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
28% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
39% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
21% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
8% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
4% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000

Confirming previous forecast

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New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
2% (+2%)
2023 Q4
2% (0%)
2024 Q1
4% (0%)
2024 Q2

Slightly altering previous forecast to align more closely with team consensus

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New Badge
margaretelam
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 13, 2023 12:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Aug 13, 2023 to Feb 13, 2024

Despite the general unrest I really don't see this happening- everyone else already has enough going on.

Files
New Prediction
margaretelam
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2%
Kuwait
4%
Oman
5%
Qatar
4%
Saudi Arabia
4%
Tunisia

Baseline forecast

Files
Files
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