confirming.
5.311447
Relative Brier Score
249
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 409 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kuwait
4%
(0%)
Oman
5%
(0%)
Qatar
4%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
4%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don't see Iran pushing their boundaries like this.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This question has a very long timeline on it so conditions could change drastically.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
16%
(-10%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
59%
(+21%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
17%
(-10%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
5%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 3000
Based on new data I'm weighing the middle bin more heavily.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
39%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
21%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
8%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
2%
(+2%)
2023 Q4
2%
(0%)
2024 Q1
4%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Slightly altering previous forecast to align more closely with team consensus
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 13, 2023 12:58AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Aug 13, 2023 to Feb 13, 2024
Despite the general unrest I really don't see this happening- everyone else already has enough going on.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Kuwait
4%
Oman
5%
Qatar
4%
Saudi Arabia
4%
Tunisia
Baseline forecast
Files
This doesn't look like anyone's desired course of action at the moment.. perhaps if tensions rise but for now I don't see any JCPOA countries trying to impose sanctions on Iran, as opposed to negotiating them out.