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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.016547
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) 0.011052
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.008223
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.020984
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) -0.008165
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.005526
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.00962
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.559887
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.003503
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.038871
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.278383
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.10108
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.01664
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.012419
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