Depeneds on a populistic political campaign...
3.374581
Relative Brier Score
0
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0
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
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Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
BBC yes. I understand BBC helped to co-developed this standard...
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100%
Yes
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No
If nobody else, Meta will test for that themselves
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Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why should Google and Facebook cater to a Microsoft standard?
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
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More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
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More than or equal to 6 million
As far as I understand, half of people in Africa don't even have a birthcertificate... we have their digital footprint, but them "signing up"?
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Legal pressure is mounting for these companies. Some lawsuits about children's mental health will get very ugly in the months to come (hundreds of kids dead...) and they'll need to do some "activism" to keep some ethical face...
It won't have any effect... similar to how "potential misinformation" have absolutely NO effect... but it'll be "some activism" (more like the completely ineffective "time well spent timer" apps... all of that is like marketing you hardcore drugs in a way you cannot space and then telling you "careful, these are drugs"... useless... so why shouldn't they do it?
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