160th
Accuracy Rank

mbbernstein

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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 75% 11%
No 25% 89%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 03:40AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 03:41AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 03:59AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 0%
No 95% 100%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2024 04:07AM UTC
(10 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 0% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 0% 7%
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