160th
Accuracy Rank

mbbernstein

About:
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-0.026653

Relative Brier Score

15

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 61 0 461
Comments 0 0 4 0 188
Questions Forecasted 0 0 35 0 97
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 0 20
 Definitions
New Badge
mbbernstein
earned a new badge:

Monthly Power Forecaster - Dec 2023

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
mbbernstein
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0%
Su-35 fighter jets

Russia's own systems have shown to be unreliable and often less advanced that it would outwardly appear. With the shortage of semiconductors from the past few years I'd be surprised if they were able to get all the basic components necessary to successfully deliver these weapons systems.

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New Prediction

A ceasefire is unlikely enough, but for it to last 6 months is extremely unlikely. Groups like the Houthi rebels typically are not the types of groups to agree to or commit to a ceasefire. And the situation between Israel and Hamas aligns them further away from Yemen.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
mbbernstein
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mbbernstein
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
mbbernstein
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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Files
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