A ceasefire is unlikely enough, but for it to last 6 months is extremely unlikely. Groups like the Houthi rebels typically are not the types of groups to agree to or commit to a ceasefire. And the situation between Israel and Hamas aligns them further away from Yemen.
0.326949
Relative Brier Score
40
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 461 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 188 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Monthly Power Forecaster - Dec 2023
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2024 03:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Russia's own systems have shown to be unreliable and often less advanced that it would outwardly appear. With the shortage of semiconductors from the past few years I'd be surprised if they were able to get all the basic components necessary to successfully deliver these weapons systems.