mfflanag

Putin has consolidated power and emended the constitution to potentially stay in power until 2036, historically has suppressed all political opposition, and mantains tight control over the media to control public opinion. The continued conflict with Ukraine provides a justification for mantaining a centralized strong leadership position and even if Russian public opinion has soured on it more than we're meant to believe based on their reporting, Putin seems to see this as a personal calling and would do anything in his power to not step down even in the face of huge public backlash. I would weigh maybe a %1 person chance a health issue takes him out of office in the next 70 days, it would have to be death or near that level of severity, if we was just badly sick it would be covered up, and .75 respectively to being assassinated/killed, .25% some minor uprising where he feared for his own life enough to abandon his position.