RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.090941
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.035382
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.032957
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.06519
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	0.003908
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	0.052527
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.003746
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.00013
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.040977
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.046404
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.001371
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.08523
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	-0.001328
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.123262
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.006924
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.016142
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	-0.024146
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	0.0082
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.002923
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.004775

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