-0.000168
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
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| Definitions | |||||
For the first, the probability of a 71-year-old male dying within the next year is 2.8%.(https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). There are only 40 days till May 2024, so assuming the base probability of dying by that time is 40/365*2.8% = 0.31%. I am reducing this by 1/3 as Putin likely has access to much better medical care than the average male - this puts the probability of him dying by 1 May 2024 at 0.2%. To quantify second part of the equation, there are currently no indications of either A) mass protests that may imperil Putin's hold on power or B) clear challenges to his leadership from other powerful leaders in Russia. So I assess that probability to be for all intents and purposes zero - I am raising this to 0.3% to account for unlikely protests following Navalny's death in prison which saw some minor demonstrations and flower laying ce