They may try to ban them but new ones will just keep popping up.
0.518875
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
No idea
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
26%
Yes
74%
No
I don't know how they are going to be able to realistically and accurately determine that a LLM has been used to conduct an influence operation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
Yes
43%
No
Possibly likely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
It is not a well known platform at this time
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
Yes
66%
No
It is going to be near impossible to detect whether something is written by AI, and if the AI programs begin watermarking, there are always going to be new ways to evade them. Therefore even if they do start watermarking, it will be just speculation and not accurate, potentially harming their platforms following and causing more users to leave.
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