mollygh

Molly Hickman
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I'm a data analyst at the Forecasting Research Institute. I hold a Masters in Computer Science from Virginia Tech. My undergraduate degree is in math and linguistics from University of Maryland - Baltimore County (UMBC). For several years I worked on forecasting projects at the MITRE Corporation.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.001234
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.061891
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.238643
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.151175
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? 0.004438
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? 0.03185
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.231336
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.09283
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.067174
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 0.006816
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.325842
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? -0.169814
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.290786
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.001065
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021? -0.152536
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.006112
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