RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.000982
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.001038
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	0.106416
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?	-0.105263
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC	What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023	0.02564
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.036252
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.030414
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.009755
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.000421
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.032621
Jan 02, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023?	-0.004178
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	0.005241
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.003934
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	0.09064
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.002374
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	-0.000086
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	-0.133925
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	-0.004857
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)	-0.000593
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000857

mudiku

Roman Hagelstein

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