mudiku

Roman Hagelstein
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4.32354

Relative Brier Score

229

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 912
Comments 0 0 0 0 28
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 123
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 11
 Definitions
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mudiku
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
mudiku
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 26, 2023 10:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
Yes
Jul 26, 2023 to Jan 26, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

The base rate is pretty low; the last two attacks were Stuxnet and Natanz, and Stuxnet wasn't attributed as a deliberate attack until a while later. I would say there is one every 3-4 years so the base rate would hover around 12%.

Since Iran has recently being increasing their nuclear efforts, and the pesky liberal opposition is now sadly massacred, and Khamenei seems healthy and surrounded by hardliners, I would kink that up to 15%

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Why might you be wrong?
Most of the probability space is above my forecast, so I guess I need to cover the case in which an attack actually happens. Again, Iran is being provoked and there is a sense of malaise particularly in Israel that Iran might soon get the bomb so they need to do something about it quickly.
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New Prediction

This now seems safe, as acceleration is baked in from the high rates in recent months and from typical dynamics of hyperinflation. Their economic problems are extreme. No reserves left.

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New Prediction
New Prediction
mudiku
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
22% (-2%)
Less than 6,000
71% (+7%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
4% (-3%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
2% (-1%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
1% (-1%)
More than or equal to 9,000

Affirming, even though the crowd trends lower. Just trimming the tails a bit. Amlo doesn't seem to place a high priority on violence reduction (or he's simply inept?)

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Here, too, the crowd is indecisevely trending lower due to good news in the first four months. Threshold still low but peace is the default. Also, it's always been hard to track fatalities in jungly DRC.

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Why might you be wrong?

1-2 massacres can quickly tip the scales.

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New Prediction

Crowd cooling off, I agree. Focus of the warriors is on Sudan now.

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