Substantial growing pressure, unsustainably high violence, baseline of length of a conflict like this is less than 1 year.
-0.000194
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
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74%
Yes
26%
No
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Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Time horizon is extremely limited, US aid for Ukraine is currently stalemated, and his position has trended toward more secure over the past six months.
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Trends across the AI field are moving very quickly, and there is much pressure to concentrate along geopolitical lines. Microsoft's very public lead in AI research paired with their key presence in China is increasingly likely to be politically untenable in the near term.