Substantial growing pressure, unsustainably high violence, baseline of length of a conflict like this is less than 1 year.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
Yes
26%
No
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Time horizon is extremely limited, US aid for Ukraine is currently stalemated, and his position has trended toward more secure over the past six months.
Files
Trends across the AI field are moving very quickly, and there is much pressure to concentrate along geopolitical lines. Microsoft's very public lead in AI research paired with their key presence in China is increasingly likely to be politically untenable in the near term.