neo

Putin's suppression of dissent over the past year or so seems to have been effective, having taken out Prighozin after his mutiny--and later reworking much of Wagner's manpower to fall more directly under Kremlin control--and with Navalny now dead. Supporters of Navalny and Prigozhin are not natural allies, with Putin sitting somewhere in between the two on the ideological spectrum (all three, in their own way, are or were strident nationalists) reducing the risk of a coalition forming against him. Navalny's recent death does inject an element of greater, acute uncertainty into the political sphere which led me to push my prediction up slightly.