Lowering because of the passage of time. The Polish watchdog's investigation mentioned in some comments does not sway my forecast by much, there is too little time.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Lowering because of passage of time and https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/94042 and https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/94052
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-15%)
Yes
90%
(+15%)
No
Passage of time and most recent clarification
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
2%
(-11%)
Yes
Passage of time, plus the situation seems to be relatively "stable" at least until the next release by OpenAI, and I am not aware of any announced LLM release by OpenAI, apart from the one mentioned in this comment, which is due November 6, after this question resolves. DALL-E 3 coming soon, but even if it is integrated in ChatGPT Plus, it's not a language model.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Going all in because of passage of time and Sam Altman's tweet shown in this comment https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/99891
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-2%)
Yes
77%
(+2%)
No
Lowering slightly because of Q2 report not mentioning LLMs, see https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97810
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-2%)
Yes
89%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time and still no signs of a technology that could reliably enforce this labeling
Files
