Lowering because of the passage of time. The Polish watchdog's investigation mentioned in some comments does not sway my forecast by much, there is too little time.
0.032657
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Lowering because of passage of time and https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/94042 and https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/94052
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-15%)
Yes
90%
(+15%)
No
Passage of time and most recent clarification
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
2%
(-11%)
Yes
Passage of time, plus the situation seems to be relatively "stable" at least until the next release by OpenAI, and I am not aware of any announced LLM release by OpenAI, apart from the one mentioned in this comment, which is due November 6, after this question resolves. DALL-E 3 coming soon, but even if it is integrated in ChatGPT Plus, it's not a language model.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Going all in because of passage of time and Sam Altman's tweet shown in this comment https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/99891
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-2%)
Yes
77%
(+2%)
No
Lowering slightly because of Q2 report not mentioning LLMs, see https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97810
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-2%)
Yes
89%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time and still no signs of a technology that could reliably enforce this labeling
Files
