The progression of US presence throughout the Pacific (including the construction of new bases) necessitates a significant change in military and global positionality that they have not yet seen. Should the PLA recognize this, beyond the PRC's version of historical narrative, it could be weaponized to justify the invasion, blockade, or attack on Taiwan. In addition, powers like the US have refused to fully recognize Taiwan, further threatening its autonomy and sovereignty that in turn leaves it more vulnerable at the hands of the PLA.
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Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
35%
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Current statistics do not support the toll reaching 1000 in the next 4 days
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An incident of mass violence in the region is not entirely unlikely and could cause such record
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than 7%
7%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
14%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
36%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
38%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been steadily occupying more land, but not at a rate where Ukraine will lose a significant amount more by the end of 2023
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Why might you be wrong?
Ukrainian efforts have held off Russia impressively, thus it is possible to hold off or reverse advance, especially if the war is to end in the next 6 months. Alternatively Russia could spur in their aggression and control more than expected
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Why do you think you're right?
The increase in activity by North Korea in weapons testing supports the prediction that the types of weapons themselves may escalate. Given the intelligence of site improvements and visits to other weapons development and component sites, it is realistic that they could be preparing to test nuclear weaponry.
Why might you be wrong?