to be fast i'd base my forecast on one fact only. russia is more than busy with their aggression in ukraine.
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Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine will gain ground with help of sustained western support and higher morale of its troops and the whole nation. Russia has lost major parts of its elite forces and armament. However, the aggressor has learned a lot as well about how Ukraine fights. Russia will use more its upper hand in the skies. Russia also has a tradition of no respect of human lives and will go to extremes in throwing more flesh to the frontlines. So I do not believe in full victory for Ukraine in the foreseeable future. As much as I would like to!
Why might you be wrong?
Russia will succeed better if west looses its interest to support Ukraine. All positives for Ukraine requires constant flow of support. West may fail to speed up the manufacturing of basic products of warfare.