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Michael Page
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Foretell project lead

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? 0.538254
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.422797
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? -0.042506
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.013877
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? -0.298827
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? -0.190161
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? -0.197657
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.005048
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? -0.006917
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? 0.013498
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.031281
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.204219
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020? -0.015517
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.287481
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.090898
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? 0.523084
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.021996
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.065581
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? 0.02161
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.159142
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