RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.538254
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.422797
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.042506
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.013877
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.298827
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.190161
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.197657
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	0.005048
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.006917
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	0.013498
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.031281
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.204219

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