Confirmed previous forecast
-0.623046
Relative Brier Score
61
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+14%)
Less than 4 million
1%
(-13%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 6 million
Not enough time, and the sign-up rate remains far too low.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 21, 2023 03:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 21, 2023 to Feb 21, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Less than 4 million
14%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
1%
More than or equal to 6 million
Currently at ~2.17M, with ~ 4 weeks to go. The current apparent rate of growth (just eyeballing the rate of the ticker at about 1 signup/second) would actually cross the threshold (~2.6M seconds/30 days). Add the chance to "go viral" and I think there's a decent (but still low-ish) chance of crossing the 4M mark in time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files