Max's prediction is a bit more lenient to large change than mine is, but I looked at one of his sources that predicts that Brent crude oil will reach a high of $88 at the end of 2024. (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Deutsche-Bank-Sees-Brent-Oil-Price-at-88-by-the-End-of-2024.html) Therefore, I feel comfortable keeping my predictions as is.
-0.030959
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Less than $90
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Max and I agree that unforeseen circumstances in the Red Sea and wider Middle East, especially given current conflicts, could cause a dramatic rise in oil prices.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 26, 2024 12:37AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-2%)
Yes
Feb 26, 2024 to Aug 26, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
After discussing with Max, he pointed out to me that not much has happened in Iran since the January 28th attacks. The Washington Post had a series of interviews with people in the Biden administration, who reiterated that they are not looking to antagonize Iran. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/18/iran-proxies-middle-east/)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The U.S. has attacked a few Houthi sites in Yemen, an Iranian proxy. Max and I discussed that although this doesn't mean that an attack on Iranian soil will occur, it shows that the U.S. isn't as risk-averse as they have painted themselves to be.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 24, 2024 03:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(+3%)
Yes
Feb 24, 2024 to Aug 24, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Last week, there was an attack on an Iranian natural gas pipeline, which was deemed a "terrorist attack." (https://apnews.com/article/iran-pipeline-explosion-israel-hamas-war-gaza-tensions-791cc5831f0df8c764c311484822913d) It seems that tensions are heightening between Israel and Iran despite the former's preoccupation with Gaza, so I've adjusted my probability by three points given this development.
In addition, Russian independent paper Meduza reported that tensions between the US and Iran have increased due to Iran's provision of ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. (https://meduza.io/news/2024/02/21/reuters-iran-peredal-rossii-okolo-400-ballisticheskih-raket) This could give the US a reason to want to hamper Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities for the dual purpose of weakening both Iran and Russia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I've already established my base rate in prior calculations, and they indicate that attacks are rare: less than 1 every 6 months. That's why I've kept my probability low, especially since the U.S. and Israel are preoccupied right now and wouldn't be looking to open a new fighting front. In addition, I found one of my classmates' forecasts through a superforecaster I'm following on here that cited the US' current risk averse mentality: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/118495
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(-4%)
Yes
55%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This week I'm trying to incorporate more foreign language sources in my analysis so that I'm not just relying on the Western perspective.
Al Jazeera Balkans (Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian) has reported on the humanitarian situation in Gaza reaching a tipping point after the bombing of a house in Rafah (supposedly a safe zone) sheltering refugees. (https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/world/liveblog/2024/2/23/deseci-ubijenih-u-izraelskom-gnusnom-masakru-u-centralnoj-gazi) These events make it less likely that either side will agree to compromise with the other given the high death toll and emotional weight.
French paper Le Monde has written about Antony Blinken reaffirming that the US will not support a reoccupation of Gaza in light of Netanyahu's post war plans. (https://www.lemonde.fr/israel-palestine/article/2024/02/23/guerre-israel-hamas-jour-140-l-onu-denonce-des-violations-grossieres-des-droits-humains-par-toutes-les-parties-a-gaza-en-cisjordanie-et-en-israel_6218203_1667123.html) The extremity of the plan (essentially a security state in Gaza) and the US' unwillingness to back it could make negotiations between Israel and Hamas even more difficult.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russian state-backed media RT published an article about Blinken saying that what's happening in Gaza is not a genocide. (https://russian.rt.com/world/news/1277085-blinken-ssha-gaza-izrail-genocid) While I don't see RT as a credible source, this article does show that a continued willingness by the US to stand by Israel. This could lead to more cooperation at the negotiating table and the will from different actors to enforce a ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(+20%)
Less than $90
12%
(-9%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
3%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
This forecast follows a straightforward logical process. As we near March 31, 2024, I'm not seeing any indication that the price will rise above $90, and I've examined a couple additional sources gleaned from the crowd: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk and https://countryeconomy.com/raw-materials/brent. In addition, I read the following statement in an article: "Data from the EIA also showed that US crude inventories rose less than expected last week." Even when the price is expected to rise, it doesn't. I'm following the crowd on this one and adjusting for more certainty. I originally had some chance of less than $110 happening, but I have no reason to back that likelihood up.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As mentioned in prior forecasts, the situation in the Middle East is still uncertain and may cause unexpected disruptions to shipping and supply chains. The aforementioned Country Economy article mentioned that experts were concerned about the region, and shocks to oil prices have happened in the past. (Though with much more coordinated effort.)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+2%)
Less than $90
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
Veronica pointed out to me that the coldest months where we'd see the most demand for/volatility in oil have passed without the price rising above $90, so I've adjusted my tail end of $120+ to be 0%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I looked at a source Veronica cited, and it did delve into the impact the Israel/Gaza war could have on oil prices. However, this impact was only predicted to be "medium" and has historically not caused prices to rise too far above some of the options here. (https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/10/31/world-bank-double-shock-in-oil-and-food-prices-if-israel-hamas-war-intensifies)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 12, 2024 01:53AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(+1%)
Yes
Feb 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
After discussing with Veronica, I feel pretty firm in my estimate of a low chance of an attack of this nature occurring in the next six months. These attacks are rare in the first place, so I'm already starting with a low base rate, and the ongoing escalation in Gaza only serves to divert attention from Iran. (See my Israel/Gaza forecast for more details.)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
However, looking at the source Veronica cited, I have a different interpretation of it than she did. She used it to justify why an attack is unlikely (the U.S. and Israel are too busy with Gaza to do anything about Iran's nuclear capabilities), but I've raised by chances by 1% point because I saw a line about the conflict in Gaza being a reason Iran can justify its nuclear program. (https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/the-iran-threat-geiger-counter-reaching-extreme-danger) This may be something the U.S. or Israel wants to act on despite being otherwise engaged.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Max and I had a lengthy discussion about the US' commitment to a deal that would involve the release of hostages and a ceasefire. With Israel's biggest partner putting pressure on a temporary peace and progress in talks, I feel slightly more confident that any potential ceasefire could hold for 30 days.
Why might you be wrong?
Max cited multiple sources that led to his relative optimism about the situation in Gaza, but I read them pessimistically, as they involved a US veto to an Arab-sponsored UN resolution (https://apnews.com/article/un-israel-palestinians-gaza-ceasefire-resolution-vote-350c86ef261bf1a00a2515cf22764de5) and Israeli leadership's continued push for control of Gaza (https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/23/middleeast/netanyahu-unveils-future-post-hamas-gaza-plan-mime-intl/index.html), which is unlikely to placate Hamas.