Confirmed previous forecast
0.049374
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 64 | 48 | 72 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 18, 2024 06:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 18, 2024 to Dec 18, 2024
85%
(0%)
No
Jun 18, 2024 to Dec 18, 2024
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 26, 2024 12:45AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
May 26, 2024 to May 26, 2025
85%
No
May 26, 2024 to May 26, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Supreme Leader Khamenei is 85 and reportedly has some serious health problems, so I think there's about a 15% chance he could die this year. The likelihood that he would be replaced or flee the country I would currently rate as 0%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Khamenei presumably gets good medical treatment and could easily live several more years. It would take a revolution on the order of the one that overthrew the Shah for Khamenei to be replaced or flee the country.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 16, 2024 02:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
100%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Kuwait
2%
(0%)
Oman
2%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
2%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Staying in the JCPOA alllows Iran to maintain its criticism that the US is the one that broke trust by withdrawing from the deal in 2018. Iran alsowill want to see what the new US administration does regarding the nuclear issue before making any decision to withdraw.