No.
2.474226
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
16%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
Yes
29%
No
Truthfulness will be critical especially in the run up to the 24 elections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
The Chinese will execute to test to gauge efficacy in Taiwan invasion preparation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
Yes
63%
No
I don't they will. It will take some time for standards to take hold.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
Less than 4 million
41%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
18%
More than or equal to 6 million
Anonymity and ID'ing oneself as a "real boy" will be critical differentiators in combating mis/disinfo and deep fakes.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
Yes
28%
No
Generative AI is a gamechanger when it comes to generating and spreading mis/disinformation at a scale and speed.
Files