Due to timeline.
-0.005204
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+65%)
Less than $4.60
5%
(-35%)
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
0%
(-15%)
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
0%
(-8%)
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
0%
(-7%)
More than or equal to $5.20
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-31%)
Yes
updating in view of the current timeline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Less than $4.60
40%
More than or equal to $4.60 but less than $4.80
15%
More than or equal to $4.80 but less than $5.00
8%
More than or equal to $5.00 but less than $5.20
7%
More than or equal to $5.20
Why do you think you're right?
US oil prices are affected by many factors. The US is one of the largest oil producers, so the prices are mainly influenced by worldwide demand. This year since Europe was facing a gas crisis, the LNG supply has increased and so is the oil, since they can substitute the gas in many operations. Hence we saw some price peaks at around 5.6 during the peak of the crisis. Now with the gas storage of Europe full and winter on its end, the demand should see a decline at least in Europe. Hence, the prices should not see any major peaks in the near term.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
One of the major demands comes from Asia, especially China, which saw a lower demand due to lockdowns, since now it's easing up, it will start using LNG and oil again, which was earlier diverted to Europe due to lucrative prices. This might increase the demand and push the peak prices higher. However, it shouldn't affect the current prices much in the near term.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The bing chat function is already out for the invite-only public testing program. However, anyone can apply for the feature and it seems they are quite liberal about access. Also upon some usage personally, I found out that node depth for bing chat (or the AI) seems to be less than that of the openAI chatGPT, which was freely accessible to the public (still is in limited accessibility). Hence, it shouldn't be an issue to roll out the softer version of AI functionality to the wider public, especially for Microsoft, since they are quite experienced in cloud tech. Also, they seem to be chipping away at the search market from google and a larger release means they could accelerate this process before Google comes out with its own AI eventually.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The only reason I can see is the tight timeline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Given the timeline, it seems highly unlikely.