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pzk

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0.212511

Relative Brier Score

2

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Comments 0 0 0 0 1
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 Definitions
New Prediction
pzk
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than 7%
34%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
55%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
5%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
1%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?

Currently, Russia controls less than 17% of Ukrainian territory. It is very unlikely that Russia would be successful to increase the held area by December. At the same time, it is very unlikely that Ukraine will be successful in recapturing all of the lost area given the fortifications as well as the difficult access to Crimea.  https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2023/01/06/war-in-ukraine-russia-now-controls-only-16-of-ukrainian-territory_6010578_8.html

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Why might you be wrong?

I am biased because I hope Ukraine to win and I read western press in which Ukrainian achievements are potentially inflated and the state of Russia's army unfairly criticized. If Ukraine fails in its counteroffensive Russian forces could be able to utilize the pessimism following it and expand its held area beyond 17% of Ukraine.

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My First Question

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Russia currently has to put its resources in war rather than a moon mission. Additionally, the currently frozen relationships with particularly the western countries mean that any PR gain from a successful moon mission would be limited, further rendering it uneconomical. 

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