RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.798145
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.153762
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.142399
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	-0.048666
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.277558
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.005922
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.048371

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