Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:53PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 07:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 07:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:53PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 07:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 07:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 18% | 8% | +10% | -4% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Georgia | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:54PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 07:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 07:56AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:54PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 08:03AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 2% | 4% | -2% | -9% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:54PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 11:43AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 11:43AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 11% | +42% | -40% |
| No | 47% | 89% | -42% | +40% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:54PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 12:34PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 12:34PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:54PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:55PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:14PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:55PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:15PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:55PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 4% | 9% | -5% | +2% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 6% | 7% | -1% | -1% |