RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

As of Aug 27, 2024 12:55PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:25PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Jul 17, 2024 to Jul 17, 2025	Oct 17, 2024	8%	-6%	+5%
No	98%	Jul 17, 2024 to Jul 17, 2025	Oct 17, 2024	92%	+6%	-5%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

As of Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:27PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Jul 17, 2024 to Jan 17, 2025	Oct 17, 2024	3%	+4%	-3%
No	93%	Jul 17, 2024 to Jan 17, 2025	Oct 17, 2024	97%	-4%	+3%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:29PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

As of Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 10:52AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 25, 2024 to Jan 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

As of Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 10:55AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Jul 25, 2024 to Jul 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	5%	+4%	+0%
No	91%	Jul 25, 2024 to Jul 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	95%	-4%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	-1%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+1%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	88%	96%	-8%	+0%
No	12%	4%	+8%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:57PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	26%	11%	+15%	-11%
No	74%	89%	-15%	+11%

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