Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 9% | +61% | -66% |
| No | 30% | 91% | -61% | +66% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 17, 2024 02:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 17, 2024 02:29PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 25, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 25, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 97% | -9% | +0% |
| No | 12% | 3% | +9% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:56PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 25, 2024 11:42AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
You quit this question on Aug 27, 2024 12:57PM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 25, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 25, 2024 12:11PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 34% | -8% | +13% |
| No | 74% | 66% | +8% | -13% |