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46th
Accuracy Rank
sanyer
About:
Background in Mathematics and Systems Sciences, pivoting towards tech policy.
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Following (17)
Followers (17)
Questions
Topics
Seasons
2020 Season
2023 Season
2021 Season
2022 Season
2024 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)
-0.011171
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
-0.000116
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)
0.0
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)
0.000161
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
-0.155495
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
-0.003029
Feb 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)
0.0
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
-0.000251
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)
0.0002
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
-0.012799
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?
0.019801
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?
0.003182
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?
-0.027418
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
-0.051884
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
-0.000611
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?
-0.000121
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
-0.001408
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?
-0.00042
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.045407
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
-0.008421
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