sanyer

Going up based on Golan

Starting with a quick forecast, starting at the crowd forecast (21%) and updating slightly upwards as I believe most forecasters here probably have more pessimistic view of AI development and the growing demand for GPUs.

It seems extremely likely for Putin to stay as a president in the next year. I'm debating whether to put "Yes" on 1% or 0% - I'll start with 1% and will update later down if there are no significant developments.

Crowd is at 3%, so I'm updating significantly down. Since my base rate calculation didn't get much engagement and it differs a lot from the crowd, I have probably missed something, so I'm willing to put much less weight for it.

Also, the election of the geopolitically moderate president Pezeshkian makes an attack less likely.

Following @404_NOT_FOUND : the elections seem to have a higher chance of being at least somewhat free and/or fair than I thought, and Maduro could get legal protections etc. and would not be "forced" to steal the elections.

I think I over-updated in my last forecast. If snapback sanctions are imposed, they'll probably be imposed next year, but the timeline for this question is this year. Additionally, the election of the new "reformist" president Pezeshkian makes such sanctions less likely. 

Confirming. I still don't see any reason to differ from the base rate, and am not sure why the crowd thinks that way.

Confirmed previous forecast

Decreasing, following the crowd