RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.174263
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.190546
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.00217
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.006534
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	-0.013613
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	0.405507
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.015487
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	0.836934
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.13304
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.128193
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.096278
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.059692
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	0.224198
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.032579
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.142556
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.084658
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?	-0.03291
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	0.049089
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?	0.114688
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?	0.698

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