RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.054448
May 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023?	-0.115094
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	0.415022
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.000928
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	-0.003266

simon