Confirmed previous forecast
-1.079203
Relative Brier Score
72
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 90 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 49 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Top Forecaster of the Month - Dec 2023
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Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
With the recent news of Sam Altman and many other employees leaving to join Microsoft, and Emmet Shear becoming CEO of OpenAI, the potential development of GPT-5 is highly likely postponed until next year
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+90%)
Yes
Clearly, I did not comprehend how publications were published and the research publications on the page linked in the details of the questions are now listing over 29 publications. My latest adjustment took into considerations that most of the publications for 2023 were accounted for.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-40%)
Yes
Comment deleted on Nov 18, 2023 09:09PM UTC
Files
Time till closing