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Top Forecaster of the Month - Nov 2023
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Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
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In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
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Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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Confirmed previous forecast
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Yes
With the recent news of Sam Altman and many other employees leaving to join Microsoft, and Emmet Shear becoming CEO of OpenAI, the potential development of GPT-5 is highly likely postponed until next year
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+90%)
Yes
Clearly, I did not comprehend how publications were published and the research publications on the page linked in the details of the questions are now listing over 29 publications. My latest adjustment took into considerations that most of the publications for 2023 were accounted for.
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Probability
Answer
10%
(-40%)
Yes
Comment deleted on Nov 18, 2023 09:09PM UTC
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