The level of unrest is diminishing.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-20%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new event sparks renewed protests and clashes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-65%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
The large demonstrations appear to be diminishing. Fewer demonstrations should lead to fewer clashes, violence and fatalities.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If another precipitating event takes place, it might be game on again.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
At this point in time, North Korea is out of the headlines as a rogue state. Why stir the pot?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because North Korea is North Korea. They are somewhat out of the headlines and they do enjoy being front page material. They are shooting off increasingly large missiles into the Pacific with limited global response. It is possible they will want the attention they will gain by detonating at nuclear weapon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Various countries are making the right noises about sending aircraft and the Russian spring offensive appears to have begun.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Fear of Russian retaliation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
There appears to be a growing divide between the Iranian Government and the Iranian people on a number of issues. Making arrests and conducting public hangings will not bridge this gap. I believe the Government will continue with heavy handed tactics which will only exacerbate the situation and lead to more unrests and civil disobedience.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible the Iranian Government will make some concessions to the demonstrators and temporarily quiet unrest.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Japan
80%
The Netherlands
25%
South Korea
0%
Any other country not listed
Why do you think you're right?
The Netherlands and Japan are already being publicly identified as joining the US coalition by Admin officials. They have not refuted these claims. South Korean manufacturing depends on Chinese chips and other components. The relationships run too deep and are so valuable that I don't believe ROK politicians would risk their donor support to ingratiate themselves with the United States.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the PRC goes too far reacting to the balloon shootdown and engages in a series of provocative acts designed to show Chinese strength and Japanese and South Korean weakness, that might galvanize public opinion enough to allow them to join a chip ban.
Files
New Badge
Why do you think you're right?
The electorate seems to be looking for new leaders. He has been in the game for a long time.
Why might you be wrong?
If the Government overplays their hand on the corruption charges, it could win him more supporters.